Odds for different outcomes in single bet are presented either in European format (decimal odds), UK format (fractional odds), or American format (moneyline odds). European format (decimal odds) are favored in continental Europe, Canada, and Australia. They are the ratio of the full payout to the stake, in a decimal format. Decimal odds of 2.00 are an even bet. UK format (fractional odds) are favored by British bookmakers. They are the ratio of the amount won to the stake. Fractional odds of 1/1 are an even bet. US format odds are favored in the United States. They are the amount won on a 100 stake when positive and the stake needed to win 100 when negative. US odds of 100 are an even bet.
In Asian betting markets, other frequently used formats for expressing odds include Hong Kong, Malaysian, and Indonesian-style odds formats. Odds are also quite often expressed in terms of implied probability, which corresponds to the probability with which the event in question would need to occur for the bet to be a breakeven proposition (on the average).
Many online tools also exist for automated conversion between these odds formats.
SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS
Sports betting systems refers to a set of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Systems supposedly allow the gambler to have an edge.
Sportsbooks use systems in their analysis to set more accurate odds. Therefore the novice gambler may believe that using a system will always work, but it is the general consensus that at some point the oddsmakers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. Very short-lived systems are called trends. Any single event that estimates a selection to have a higher likelihood of winning is called an angle as they are meant to be used in conjunction with other angles and trends to produce systems.
STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS
Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football (soccer) matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers, who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
The most widely used statistical approach to prediction is ranking. Football ranking systems assign a rank to each team based on their past game results, so that the highest rank is assigned to the strongest team. The outcome of the match can be predicted by comparing the opponents’ ranks. Today, eight different football ranking systems exist: FIFA World Rankings, World Football Elo Ratings, AQB Sports Ratings, The Roon Ba, InternationalMark, Rsoccer, Mondfoot and Chance de Gol.
There are three main drawbacks to football match predictions that are based on ranking systems:
- Ranks assigned to the teams do not differentiate between their attacking and defensive strengths.
- Ranks are accumulated averages which do not account for skill changes in football teams.
- The main goal of a ranking system is not to predict the results of football games, but to sort the teams according to their average strength.
Another approach to football prediction is known as rating systems. While ranking refers only to team order, rating systems assign to each team a continuously scaled strength indicator. Moreover, rating can be assigned not only to a team but to its attacking and defensive strengths, home field advantage or even to the skills of each team player (according to Stern).